Pasture,Cropland and Forest Scenarios in Industrial and Developing Regions

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)

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Pasture,Cropland and Forest Scenarios in Industrial and Developing Regions

 

  • Land use changes causing habitat loss are associated primarily with fur­ther expansion of agriculture and, sec­ondarily, with the expansion of cities and infrastructure.
  • This expan­sion is caused by increases in popula­tion, economic growth, and changing consumption patterns.
  • By 2050, global population increase to 8.1–9.6 billion. At the same time, per capita GDP expands by a factor of 1.9–4.4 depending on the scenario.
  • Demand is damp­ened by increasing efficiency in the use of resources. The expansion of agricul­tural land occurs mainly in developing countries and arid regions, whereas in industrial countries, agricultural area declines.
  • The reverse pattern occurs in terms of forest cover, with some forest being regained in industrial countries but with 30% of the forest in the developing world being lost from 1970 to 2050, resulting in a global net loss of forest.

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